By Michael Bowman
Washington
26 March 2009
U.S. officials say they foresee no change in the U.S. dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency. The statements come in response to calls from China for the establishment of an international reserve currency that is not tied to any one country. International concerns appear to be mounting over America's skyrocketing national debt and the inflation it could spark, but so far there is no international consensus on what, if any, currency or monetary regime should replace the dollar.
Earlier this week, days before the G-20 financial summit in London, China's central bank chief called for a new international reserve currency. Asked to comment Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner first said he was "open" to the idea. Moments later, he sought to clarify his remarks.
"I think the dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency," said Geithner. "I think that is likely to continue for a long period of time. And, as a country, we will do what is necessary to make sure we are sustaining confidence in our financial markets and in the productive capacity of this economy and in our long term fundamentals."
Geithner's comments mirrored those of President Barack Obama, who was asked about the impact of his economic proposals on the value of the dollar at his news conference on Tuesday.
"The dollar is extraordinarily strong right now," President Obama said. "And the reason the dollar is strong right now is because investors consider the United States [to be] the strongest economy in the world with the most stable political system in the world."
International unease about the U.S. dollar stems from the fact that China and other nations are holding large and growing amounts of American debt, according to economist James Dorn of the Cato Institute. Dorn says, as the largest financier of U.S. deficit spending, China has particular cause for concern.
"This is the first time they have really revealed their concerns about the size of the debt that they are holding and the future of the dollar," he said. "They are very worried about it, and I am sure the Japanese and other holders of the debt are worried, as well."
Dorn says America's massive indebtedness, combined with a sharp boost in U.S. government spending, could ultimately spark inflation, which would erode the dollar's value. That erosion would diminish the value of U.S. debt held abroad.
"The U.S. government would be paying China back with cheaper dollars, depreciated dollars," he said.
Dorn says the U.S. dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency has made it easier for the United States to finance its debt without resorting to painful options like printing money or ratcheting up interest rates.
That would change if China and other nations stopped financing U.S. debt or dumped their dollar holdings in favor of another reserve currency. But economist Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute says such a course of action would be costly for China, as well.
"Once you have that large an amount of dollar holdings, you also have a stake in the dollar maintaining its value," he said. "So, were China to undermine the value of the dollar by making pronouncements or begin selling currency, they would be jeopardizing the other international reserves they are holding in the form of U.S. dollars."
In addition, Lachman says, as a major exporter, China has no interest in destabilizing the international financial system at a time of great upheaval and global economic weakness.
Nevertheless, Lachman says China's statements on replacing the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency will find a receptive audience among other nations, like Russia, that seek to challenge America's overall position as a global superpower.
美高官預(yù)計美元國際貨幣地位不變
美國官員說，他們預(yù)計美元的國際儲備貨幣地位不會改變。這個聲明是對中國銀行官員呼吁建立一種超主權(quán)國際儲備貨幣做出的回應(yīng)。盡管國際社會對美國國債激增以及通脹預(yù)期的關(guān)注日益增加，但迄今為止，國際間尚未就是否應(yīng)該取代美元的儲備貨幣地位，或者由哪種貨幣取而代之達成共識。
*強勢儲備貨幣*
在倫敦20國集團峰會即將召開之際，中國銀行行長周小川呼吁建立一種新的國際儲備貨幣。星期三，美國財長蓋特納在被問及此事的時候說，他對這個建議持“開放“”態(tài)度。稍后，他對此做出說明：
“我想美元仍然是世界的強勢儲備貨幣。我想這很可能會持續(xù)很長一段時間。作為一個國家，我們將竭盡全力維持對金融市場、生產(chǎn)力、以及經(jīng)濟長期基本面的信心?！啊?
*投資者看好美國*
蓋特納實際上重申了奧巴馬總統(tǒng)最近的表態(tài)。在星期二的記者會上，奧巴馬被問到美國政府的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇計劃可能對美元產(chǎn)生的影響。他說：
“美元目前仍然強勁。其中的原因是美國以外的投資者認(rèn)為美國是世界上最強勁的經(jīng)濟體，美國的政治制度是世界上最穩(wěn)定的。“”
*多恩：中方之憂有理*
國際社會對美元的憂慮主要來自于中國和其它國家持有大量不斷增多的美國債券?？ㄍ醒芯克慕?jīng)濟學(xué)家詹姆斯·多恩說，作為美國赤字開支的最大債權(quán)方，中國格外有理由感到擔(dān)心。
多恩：“這是中國第一次真正表達了他們對持有的美元債務(wù)以及對美元前途的擔(dān)心。他們非常擔(dān)心。我相信日本以及其它主要債權(quán)國也都非常擔(dān)心?！啊?
多恩說，美國的巨額債務(wù)以及政府開支的大幅增加可能最終引發(fā)通貨膨脹。這將削弱美元，導(dǎo)致債權(quán)國的美元資產(chǎn)縮水。
多恩：“美國政府將用更廉價的貶值美元來支付中國?！啊?
多恩說，美元作為儲備貨幣的主導(dǎo)地位使美國得以避免使用增印鈔票和提升利率等痛苦手段來償付債務(wù)。
*拉赫曼：維護美元 對華有利*
但如果中國和其它債權(quán)國停止購買美國國債或者拋售美元，選擇另外一種儲備貨幣的話，美國的優(yōu)勢將被改變。不過，美國企業(yè)研究所的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家戴斯蒙德·拉赫曼說，這種局面對于中國來說也是很昂貴的。
“當(dāng)你持有的美元資產(chǎn)如此之大的時候，美元保值也符合你的利益。所以，中國難道會唱衰美元或者開始拋售美元嗎?這樣做將使他們以美元形式持有的其它國際儲備陷入危險?！啊?
此外，拉赫曼還表示，作為主要出口國，中國在全球經(jīng)濟混亂和疲軟的時候打破國際金融系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定并不符合其自身利益。
不過，拉赫曼說，中國關(guān)于取代美元主要儲備貨幣地位的說法會在俄羅斯等其它國家找到聽眾，因為俄羅斯正在伺機挑戰(zhàn)美國的全球超級大國地位。
