By Michael Bowman
Washington
26 March 2009
U.S. officials say they foresee no change in the U.S. dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency. The statements come in response to calls from China for the establishment of an international reserve currency that is not tied to any one country. International concerns appear to be mounting over America's skyrocketing national debt and the inflation it could spark, but so far there is no international consensus on what, if any, currency or monetary regime should replace the dollar.
Earlier this week, days before the G-20 financial summit in London, China's central bank chief called for a new international reserve currency. Asked to comment Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner first said he was "open" to the idea. Moments later, he sought to clarify his remarks.
"I think the dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency," said Geithner. "I think that is likely to continue for a long period of time. And, as a country, we will do what is necessary to make sure we are sustaining confidence in our financial markets and in the productive capacity of this economy and in our long term fundamentals."
Geithner's comments mirrored those of President Barack Obama, who was asked about the impact of his economic proposals on the value of the dollar at his news conference on Tuesday.
"The dollar is extraordinarily strong right now," President Obama said. "And the reason the dollar is strong right now is because investors consider the United States [to be] the strongest economy in the world with the most stable political system in the world."
International unease about the U.S. dollar stems from the fact that China and other nations are holding large and growing amounts of American debt, according to economist James Dorn of the Cato Institute. Dorn says, as the largest financier of U.S. deficit spending, China has particular cause for concern.
"This is the first time they have really revealed their concerns about the size of the debt that they are holding and the future of the dollar," he said. "They are very worried about it, and I am sure the Japanese and other holders of the debt are worried, as well."
Dorn says America's massive indebtedness, combined with a sharp boost in U.S. government spending, could ultimately spark inflation, which would erode the dollar's value. That erosion would diminish the value of U.S. debt held abroad.
"The U.S. government would be paying China back with cheaper dollars, depreciated dollars," he said.
Dorn says the U.S. dollar's dominance as a global reserve currency has made it easier for the United States to finance its debt without resorting to painful options like printing money or ratcheting up interest rates.
That would change if China and other nations stopped financing U.S. debt or dumped their dollar holdings in favor of another reserve currency. But economist Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute says such a course of action would be costly for China, as well.
"Once you have that large an amount of dollar holdings, you also have a stake in the dollar maintaining its value," he said. "So, were China to undermine the value of the dollar by making pronouncements or begin selling currency, they would be jeopardizing the other international reserves they are holding in the form of U.S. dollars."
In addition, Lachman says, as a major exporter, China has no interest in destabilizing the international financial system at a time of great upheaval and global economic weakness.
Nevertheless, Lachman says China's statements on replacing the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency will find a receptive audience among other nations, like Russia, that seek to challenge America's overall position as a global superpower.
美高官預(yù)計(jì)美元國(guó)際貨幣地位不變
美國(guó)官員說，他們預(yù)計(jì)美元的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位不會(huì)改變。這個(gè)聲明是對(duì)中國(guó)銀行官員呼吁建立一種超主權(quán)國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣做出的回應(yīng)。盡管國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債激增以及通脹預(yù)期的關(guān)注日益增加，但迄今為止，國(guó)際間尚未就是否應(yīng)該取代美元的儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位，或者由哪種貨幣取而代之達(dá)成共識(shí)。
*強(qiáng)勢(shì)儲(chǔ)備貨幣*
在倫敦20國(guó)集團(tuán)峰會(huì)即將召開之際，中國(guó)銀行行長(zhǎng)周小川呼吁建立一種新的國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣。星期三，美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)蓋特納在被問及此事的時(shí)候說，他對(duì)這個(gè)建議持“開放“”態(tài)度。稍后，他對(duì)此做出說明：
“我想美元仍然是世界的強(qiáng)勢(shì)儲(chǔ)備貨幣。我想這很可能會(huì)持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。作為一個(gè)國(guó)家，我們將竭盡全力維持對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)、生產(chǎn)力、以及經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期基本面的信心?！啊?
*投資者看好美國(guó)*
蓋特納實(shí)際上重申了奧巴馬總統(tǒng)最近的表態(tài)。在星期二的記者會(huì)上，奧巴馬被問到美國(guó)政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇計(jì)劃可能對(duì)美元產(chǎn)生的影響。他說：
“美元目前仍然強(qiáng)勁。其中的原因是美國(guó)以外的投資者認(rèn)為美國(guó)是世界上最強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，美國(guó)的政治制度是世界上最穩(wěn)定的?！啊?
*多恩：中方之憂有理*
國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)美元的憂慮主要來自于中國(guó)和其它國(guó)家持有大量不斷增多的美國(guó)債券?？ㄍ醒芯克慕?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家詹姆斯·多恩說，作為美國(guó)赤字開支的最大債權(quán)方，中國(guó)格外有理由感到擔(dān)心。
多恩：“這是中國(guó)第一次真正表達(dá)了他們對(duì)持有的美元債務(wù)以及對(duì)美元前途的擔(dān)心。他們非常擔(dān)心。我相信日本以及其它主要債權(quán)國(guó)也都非常擔(dān)心?！啊?
多恩說，美國(guó)的巨額債務(wù)以及政府開支的大幅增加可能最終引發(fā)通貨膨脹。這將削弱美元，導(dǎo)致債權(quán)國(guó)的美元資產(chǎn)縮水。
多恩：“美國(guó)政府將用更廉價(jià)的貶值美元來支付中國(guó)。“”
多恩說，美元作為儲(chǔ)備貨幣的主導(dǎo)地位使美國(guó)得以避免使用增印鈔票和提升利率等痛苦手段來償付債務(wù)。
*拉赫曼：維護(hù)美元 對(duì)華有利*
但如果中國(guó)和其它債權(quán)國(guó)停止購(gòu)買美國(guó)國(guó)債或者拋售美元，選擇另外一種儲(chǔ)備貨幣的話，美國(guó)的優(yōu)勢(shì)將被改變。不過，美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家戴斯蒙德·拉赫曼說，這種局面對(duì)于中國(guó)來說也是很昂貴的。
“當(dāng)你持有的美元資產(chǎn)如此之大的時(shí)候，美元保值也符合你的利益。所以，中國(guó)難道會(huì)唱衰美元或者開始拋售美元嗎?這樣做將使他們以美元形式持有的其它國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備陷入危險(xiǎn)?！啊?
此外，拉赫曼還表示，作為主要出口國(guó)，中國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂和疲軟的時(shí)候打破國(guó)際金融系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定并不符合其自身利益。
不過，拉赫曼說，中國(guó)關(guān)于取代美元主要儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位的說法會(huì)在俄羅斯等其它國(guó)家找到聽眾，因?yàn)槎砹_斯正在伺機(jī)挑戰(zhàn)美國(guó)的全球超級(jí)大國(guó)地位。
